Sunday, March 8, 2009

Battle for Second?

Going into spring training, the Cubs starting lineup is pretty much set. Newcomer Milton Bradley will be manning right field when his body allows it. And a platoon of Kosuke Fukudome and Reed Johnson will share center field duties. So the only position without a set starter is second base. The main two competing for the spot are veteran Aaron Miles and fan favorite Mike Fontenot.

Aaron Miles signed a 2 year/$4.9M deal in the off-season after being released by the Cardinals, whom he spent the last three years with. The 31 year old switch hitter is a career .289/.329/.364 hitter. He's coming off his best season in the majors, posting a line of .319/.355/.398, which was slightly above the average OPS for NL second basemen last year. He's average, at best, defensively but can play second, third and shortstop. His "versatility" is most likely the reason for the 2 year contract after the Cubs traded the actually versatile Mark DeRosa.

Mike Fontenot is entering his fourth year in the league but only his second full season with the big club. He was acquired from the Baltimore Orioles in the Sammy Sosa deal in 2004. He's never gotten an opportunity to prove that he deserves a starting job but it appears this year is his best shot. Last year in limited time, he posted a line of .305/.395/.514. However, he has less than 500 career at bats and is already 29 years old. I wouldn't say his time is running out, but a player over 30 with limited experience doesn't get many opportunities. He is an above average fielder, the Fielding Bible rated him as a +11, meaning he saved 11 runs with his glove last year in limited duty. However he can only play second base, though he has been given an opportunity to play third base in Spring Training so far, in hopes he can help back up Aramis Ramirez when necessary.

All in all, Mike Fontenot should be the clear favorite to be the starting second baseman. His minor league numbers support what he's been doing in the majors, getting on base and showing some pop in his 5'7" swing. PECOTA has him rated at a 14.5 VORP for the upcoming season. On the other hand, Aaron Miles has hit his ceiling and most likely won't even put up his "career" numbers of last year. He is a quality backup, however he's not being paid like one. His PECOTA projected VORP is 2.2 which is about a third of Jack Wilson's projected VORP. But what's done is done, and Piniella shouldn't let salaries decide this position battle.

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