So he isn't coming back to the Cubs, but Dusty Baker is back in the NL Central. Last month, the Cincinnati Reds signed Baker to a 3 year deal making him the first black manager in their 117 year history. So what does this mean to the Reds and the rest of the NL Central? Well it depends on who you ask.
In San Francisco, Dusty is most known for his handling of superstars Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent and leading lesser talented teams to winning records. He won Manager of the Year three times and led the Giants to 7 winning seasons out of the 10 he managed. Despite taking the Giants to the World Series in 2002, he wasn't brought back and the Chicago Cubs signed him to take over their 67 win team.
Just looking at the improvement the Cubs made from 2002 to 2003, you would have to conclude that Dusty Baker was a big part of the turnaround. The team went from fifth place to winning the division by one game and making it to game 7 of the NLCS. Looking deeper into the season though, the team should've won more than 88 games.
In 2003, thirty-eight year old journeyman Lenny Harris had 131 ABs, posting a .255 OBP, while twenty eight year old Mark Bellhorn had 139 ABs, posting a .341 OBP. When asked about Bellhorn seeing more playing time, Baker responded, "He has been programmed, before we got him, by the A's. Their philosophy is taking a lot of pitches and getting deep in the count. Most times, I notice guys who come from the American League to the National League weren't used to being aggressive and took a lot of pitches. It's going to take time to change your mind-set." Of course, we remember Baker's quote about how he feels about OBP, "On base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage. Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." So instead of using the switch hitting Bellhorn with an .080 higher OBP more, he used the 'aggressive' Harris.
Unfortunately, this wasn't the only instance of Baker preferring the less talented player. Shawn Estes made 28 starts despite posting a 5.73 ERA, while young pitchers Sergio Mitre and Juan Cruz were used sporadically. Players who Baker didn't favor, usually young players, were banished to the minors, bench, or occasionally other teams. And 'established veterans' were used in their place:
Ramon Martinez - 293 ABs - .333 OBP
Troy O'Leary - 174 ABs - .255 OBP
Tom Goodwin - 171 ABs - .328 OBP
Tony Womack - 51 ABs - .250 OBP
Of course, this trend continued throughout Baker's four years in Chicago. Players like Bellhorn, Jason Dubois, and Jerry Hairston were moved to make way for veterans such as Todd Hollandsworth, Jeromey Burnitz, Jose Macias, Rey Ordonez and of course Neifi Perez. In 2005, when asked why Perez was getting more time than youngster Ronny Cedeno, he answered, "I hear a lot of people say, 'Hey, put Cedeno in.' What am I supposed to do, push Neifi out now? This guy has saved us." In 2005, Perez had 572 ABs and posted a .298 OBP. 572 ABs! However, in defense of Baker, in his last season he was given much less talent and unsurprisingly finished in 5th place.
Of course, Baker's most noted for his handling of young pitchers. We all know what happened with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior who together combined for 31 starts of 150 of starts with over 120 pitches thrown. But what about other starters Baker managed?
Carlos Zambrano - 31 starts of 129 with 120+ pitches
Matt Clement - 6 starts of 64 with 120+ pitches
Livan Hernandez - 43 starts of 110 with 120+ pitches
Russ Ortiz - 33 starts of 144 with 120+ pitches
Shawn Estes - 22 starts of 160 with 120+ pitches
Chance of injury greatly increases when a pitcher goes over 120 pitches. So looking at these 7 pitchers, they went over 120 pitches 22% of the time, and this doesn't include the playoffs.
However, according to The Hardball Times:
So what does this mean for Reds fans? We'll have to wait to see for sure but here some key aspects to look out for:
Adam Dunn - Dunn lacks the aggressiveness that Baker looks for in his players which will probably lead to Baker looking to move him as soon as possible, which would be July 15 since the Reds picked up his option this offseason.
Edwin Encarnacion - Last year, Encarnacion was pulled after not running out a pop fly. Baker has the reputation of being very laid back and not getting on his players for lack of hustle, and it'll be interesting to see if Encarnacion goes back to evil ways.
Free Agents - Baker has a positive reputation among players, mostly because of his laid back clubhouse. This could increase the interest of free agents to sign with the Reds.
Jay Bruce and Joey Votto - Baker loves veterans and Freel and Hatteberg (if resigned) could easily be given ABs that should go to Bruce and Votto. Bruce had a great season in the minors, going from A to AAA and posting a combined .319/.375/.587, and Votto put up .321/.360/.548 after being called up to the big club. They should be ready to start in 2008 but if Baker sticks to what he's done in the past, they'll be in a platoon with an established veteran.
Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto - Two homegrown pitchers who the Reds will be relying on for the next several years will be tested with Baker at the helm. Will he use them the same way he used Prior and Wood, or did he learn from his mistakes?
NL Central Managers - It'll be fun to see LaRussa, Baker and Piniella all in the same division. We know Baker already doesn't like LaRussa, and I'm sure there will be some tension between Baker and Piniella with Baker getting the short end of the stick in Chicago.
Neifi Perez - I'm sure Baker's already made him an offer for after his suspension. Reds fans better get used to him.
And this Baker quote might help Reds fans realize what they're in for, "I remember my old general manager Al Campanis telling me that a player doesn't reach his peak until he's somewhere between 32 or 36 and beyond..." Doesn't seem like the kind of manager a young, up and coming team needs right now.
In San Francisco, Dusty is most known for his handling of superstars Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent and leading lesser talented teams to winning records. He won Manager of the Year three times and led the Giants to 7 winning seasons out of the 10 he managed. Despite taking the Giants to the World Series in 2002, he wasn't brought back and the Chicago Cubs signed him to take over their 67 win team.
Just looking at the improvement the Cubs made from 2002 to 2003, you would have to conclude that Dusty Baker was a big part of the turnaround. The team went from fifth place to winning the division by one game and making it to game 7 of the NLCS. Looking deeper into the season though, the team should've won more than 88 games.
In 2003, thirty-eight year old journeyman Lenny Harris had 131 ABs, posting a .255 OBP, while twenty eight year old Mark Bellhorn had 139 ABs, posting a .341 OBP. When asked about Bellhorn seeing more playing time, Baker responded, "He has been programmed, before we got him, by the A's. Their philosophy is taking a lot of pitches and getting deep in the count. Most times, I notice guys who come from the American League to the National League weren't used to being aggressive and took a lot of pitches. It's going to take time to change your mind-set." Of course, we remember Baker's quote about how he feels about OBP, "On base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage. Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." So instead of using the switch hitting Bellhorn with an .080 higher OBP more, he used the 'aggressive' Harris.
Unfortunately, this wasn't the only instance of Baker preferring the less talented player. Shawn Estes made 28 starts despite posting a 5.73 ERA, while young pitchers Sergio Mitre and Juan Cruz were used sporadically. Players who Baker didn't favor, usually young players, were banished to the minors, bench, or occasionally other teams. And 'established veterans' were used in their place:
Ramon Martinez - 293 ABs - .333 OBP
Troy O'Leary - 174 ABs - .255 OBP
Tom Goodwin - 171 ABs - .328 OBP
Tony Womack - 51 ABs - .250 OBP
Of course, this trend continued throughout Baker's four years in Chicago. Players like Bellhorn, Jason Dubois, and Jerry Hairston were moved to make way for veterans such as Todd Hollandsworth, Jeromey Burnitz, Jose Macias, Rey Ordonez and of course Neifi Perez. In 2005, when asked why Perez was getting more time than youngster Ronny Cedeno, he answered, "I hear a lot of people say, 'Hey, put Cedeno in.' What am I supposed to do, push Neifi out now? This guy has saved us." In 2005, Perez had 572 ABs and posted a .298 OBP. 572 ABs! However, in defense of Baker, in his last season he was given much less talent and unsurprisingly finished in 5th place.
Of course, Baker's most noted for his handling of young pitchers. We all know what happened with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior who together combined for 31 starts of 150 of starts with over 120 pitches thrown. But what about other starters Baker managed?
Carlos Zambrano - 31 starts of 129 with 120+ pitches
Matt Clement - 6 starts of 64 with 120+ pitches
Livan Hernandez - 43 starts of 110 with 120+ pitches
Russ Ortiz - 33 starts of 144 with 120+ pitches
Shawn Estes - 22 starts of 160 with 120+ pitches
Chance of injury greatly increases when a pitcher goes over 120 pitches. So looking at these 7 pitchers, they went over 120 pitches 22% of the time, and this doesn't include the playoffs.
However, according to The Hardball Times:
Baker's pitchers throw 3.68 more pitches per start than expected. That's maybe an extra start-and-a-fifth a year. It's about 5-10 extra innings.So maybe Prior and Wood's injuries had nothing to do with Baker, it all depends on who you ask. But for now, we don't know for sure.
So it seems that to claim that Baker ruins pitchers' careers is hyperbolic at the least. Even if we account for the fact that younger pitchers should probably be throwing less innings, Baker still isn't quite the monster people make him out to be. Nevertheless, if he is worth 5-6 extra pitches per outing for a young pitcher, that may indeed be significant. There's certainly no reason not to be on the cautious side, and Baker's lack of caution with high-pitch outings is certainly disconcerting.
But Dusty Baker is not a professional arm shredder; he only leaves his starters out there for about three-and-a-half more pitches than expected.
So what does this mean for Reds fans? We'll have to wait to see for sure but here some key aspects to look out for:
Adam Dunn - Dunn lacks the aggressiveness that Baker looks for in his players which will probably lead to Baker looking to move him as soon as possible, which would be July 15 since the Reds picked up his option this offseason.
Edwin Encarnacion - Last year, Encarnacion was pulled after not running out a pop fly. Baker has the reputation of being very laid back and not getting on his players for lack of hustle, and it'll be interesting to see if Encarnacion goes back to evil ways.
Free Agents - Baker has a positive reputation among players, mostly because of his laid back clubhouse. This could increase the interest of free agents to sign with the Reds.
Jay Bruce and Joey Votto - Baker loves veterans and Freel and Hatteberg (if resigned) could easily be given ABs that should go to Bruce and Votto. Bruce had a great season in the minors, going from A to AAA and posting a combined .319/.375/.587, and Votto put up .321/.360/.548 after being called up to the big club. They should be ready to start in 2008 but if Baker sticks to what he's done in the past, they'll be in a platoon with an established veteran.
Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto - Two homegrown pitchers who the Reds will be relying on for the next several years will be tested with Baker at the helm. Will he use them the same way he used Prior and Wood, or did he learn from his mistakes?
NL Central Managers - It'll be fun to see LaRussa, Baker and Piniella all in the same division. We know Baker already doesn't like LaRussa, and I'm sure there will be some tension between Baker and Piniella with Baker getting the short end of the stick in Chicago.
Neifi Perez - I'm sure Baker's already made him an offer for after his suspension. Reds fans better get used to him.
And this Baker quote might help Reds fans realize what they're in for, "I remember my old general manager Al Campanis telling me that a player doesn't reach his peak until he's somewhere between 32 or 36 and beyond..." Doesn't seem like the kind of manager a young, up and coming team needs right now.
