Is Peavy Possible?

The World Series isn't over yet, but there's already a huge name being mentioned in trade rumors, Jake Peavy. Because of Padres' owner John Moore's divorce, the team is forced to slash their payroll and inevitably go into a rebuilding mode. It's been speculated that San Diego will have to lower their payroll from $73 million last year to around $40 million next year. Peavy is set to make $8 million, $15 million, $16 million, $17 million and a $22 million team option in the next 5 years. It would be tough for the Padres to have one player taking up over 40% of their payroll, and it would also be tough for Peavy to pitch for a team that has little shot of competing over the rest of his contract. So both sides are doing what they feel is necessary going into 2009.

Peavy has stated he wants to stay in the National League and has more specifically metioned 5 teams; Braves, Dodgers, Astros, Cardinals and Cubs. He has a full no trade clause so he has a good deal of control over any trade that would happen, including his desire for his $22 million option to be guaranteed in 2013 and a full no trade clause throughout his contract.

So now Cubs fans are asking themselves, "Is Peavy possible?". Can we add one of the NL's best starters, a pitcher who has had a sub 3.00 ERA four out of the past five years? There are conflicting reports but it definitely doesn't hurt to speculate.

It has been stated that the Padres are looking for a centerfield prospect who is MLB ready and two young starting pitchers, also MLB ready. The big rumor is that Peavy is likely going to go to Atlanta for two of their top prospects, Tommy Hanson and Jordan Schafer, and one of their starting middle infielders from last year, either Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson. According to Baseball America, Hanson was the Braves 9th overall prospect going into 2008. The 22 year old right hander started 22 games in AA last year and finished with an 8-4 record and a 3.03 ERA. He also had 114 strikeouts in 98 innings. Jordan Schafer was the Braves top prospect going into 2008 and the 25th in all of baseball. In AA, Schafer finished with a line of .269/.378/.471 including 10 HRs and 51 RBIs in 84 games. The possible final piece of the offer has been mentioned as either Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson. Escobar played his first entire season for the Braves last year. The shortstop put up .288/.366/.401 in 136 games. Johnson, the 26 year old starting second baseman for the Braves, played in 150 games and put up .287/.349/.446 last season.

Apparently the Braves have denied offering up these two prospects in this deal but no team will ever come out and confirm players that they're offering in trades. Either way, it seems that this is the top offer on the table for Peavy right now. So, can the Cubs beat it?

Well the deal would have to revolve around Cubs top prospect Josh Vitters. The 18 year old third base prospect played 61 games in low A ball last year. He put up .328/.365/.498 including 25 doubles and 37 RBIs. According to Baseball America, Vitters is the 43rd overall prospect in the MLB. The Padres' top prospect is third baseman Chase Headley, so they're not as likely to trade for another third baseman as they are an outfielder. However, they did use Headley in the outfield last year so it's not impossible for them to take on another third baseman.

Another piece of the deal could be Cubs top outfield prospect Tyler Colvin. The Cubs third prospect overall, the 23 year old played a full season in AA. Colvin's average dropped from .291 in AA last year to .256 in 2008. However, he did hit 14 homeruns and drove in 80 runs. Going into 2008, Colvin was the 75th overall prospect in the MLB according to Baseball America.

The Cubs top pitching prospect, Jose Ceda would most likely have to be involved in any deal for Peavy. The 21 year old closer pitched in 22 games for AA and posted a 2.08 ERA while striking out 42 batters in 30.1 innings. However, because Ceda has been converted to a closer his value as a trade piece is decreased.

Players with major league experience also could be involved in a deal for Peavy. Felix Pie, the Cubs top prospect just one year ago would most likely be involved in any deal for Peavy. Kevin Towers has shown interest in Pie in past and that likely has not changed. Pie's value has diminished however, so the Cubs could decide whether to sell low and hang on and see if he can turn it around.

Ryan Theriot is coming off a career year which when looked into further isn't as impressive as you would think. The starting shortshop hit only 24 extra base hits in over 600 plate appearances. Carlos Zambrano had 9 extra base hits in about 80 plate appearances. However, Theriot did walk over 80 times so his OBP was not just a result of his high batting average. The Padres have been trying to move Khalil Greene for years now and could be looking for a cheap alternative in a deal for Peavy and Theriot could be a player they target.

Jeff Samardzija also could be an interesting piece for the Padres. Samardzija pitched in the majors just one year after being drafted and had some success in the set up role. He struggled at times with his control as most young pitchers do, but still ended the season with respectable numbers and pretty much guaranteed himself a spot in the bullpen again next year. However, because of Samardzija's loaded contract to keep him in baseball, he has a full no trade clause and likely wouldn't waive it.

An interesting possibility would be making the deal around Carlos Marmol. Longtime closer, Trevor Hoffman has be in decline the past few years and Marmol could slide right into the closer role for the Padres. He is young and inexpensive and has been nearly unhittable the past two years. The Cubs also have the dilemma of what to do with Kerry Wood since Marmol is waiting in the wings for his chance.

So what would it take to get Peavy? I would have to imagine a deal revolving around Josh Vitters and Carlos Marmol would be a start. However, the Padres would most likely require two more top prospects such as Colvin and Ceda. San Diego GM Kevin Towers likes to build his bullpen with inexpensive pitchers who have low walk rates. Marmol does tend to walk a lot of batters, but he also led all relievers in strikeouts last year. So it is hard to guess how much Towers a pitcher like Marmol.

In the end, I would have to imagine the Cubs don't have the pieces to get it done. They traded 3 of their top ten prospects in the Rich Harden deal so their system is not as deep as it was at the beginning of the year, not that it was deep to begin with. Also, the Padres top prospects play the same positions as the Cubs possible trade pieces which diminishes their value and makes a trade even less likely. So unless Jim Hendry somehow pulls a fast one on Kevin Towers, I believe Ryan Dempster will be resigned and the Cubs will roll with the rotation they had last year, with their only possible change being with the 5th starter.

I know it won't happen but I can hope...

Peavy, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly

Wow.

So what now?

As Tampa Bay and Philadelphia get ready to start the World Series tomorrow, Cubs fans are left thinking, "What now?" Well that and a few other things that would be censored in any publication. But either way, it's time to move on and see who is and isn't coming back for next year's roller coaster ride.

Catchers:

Geovany Soto - The probable Rookie of the Year will be set to make 401K next year and fulfill the same role he had this year as the prime signal caller. He is out of minor league options, but that should not be a problem.

Henry Blanco - Hank White has a $3 million team option for the 2009 season. It will likely be bought out for 300K, and he will probably be resigned for less money, closer to the amount he made this year.

Infielders:

Derrek Lee - Lee is signed at $13 million for the next two years. His numbers were not bad, but were definitely lower than most Cubs fans expected. We shouldn't expect a year like 2005, but his numbers should improve next year.

Mark DeRosa - The most versatile Cub is entering the last year of his contract, one that was thought to be foolish when it was signed. After last years 21 HR performance, DeRosa is the least of the Cubs worries. This year at least.

Aramis Ramirez - The 30 year old did last year what he has done since he got to the Cubs, get on base, slug, and drive in runs. His next two years are guaranteed with the Cubs, but has a player option in 2011. No need to worry about until then though.

Ryan Theriot - The Riot will be back next year either with an auto renewed contract or through arbitration if he qualifies as a Super Two. The shortstop would prefer the latter thanks to his career year which would substantially boost the 428K he would be set to receive in 2009.

Ronny Cedeno - Seems like it was a while ago when Cedeno was given the everyday starting job at shortstop and played in 151 games. But it was only two years ago, and he has not really been given the opportunity to reclaim the job since that year. He is only 25 but is out of minor league options, so unless he is involved in a trade, he will be back next year in the same role he had in 2008.

Mike Fontenot - It is usually hard to keep a player on the roster who is a back up and can only play one position. But its harder to send down a middle infielder whose OPS is .909. Fontenot is set to make the league minimum again next year and because of Cedeno's versatility he should be fine fulfilling his role as the backup second baseman.

Micah Hoffpauir - Next year will finally be the year Hoffpauir makes the team out of spring training. He will take over Daryle Ward's role of pinch hitter extraordinaire. He will be 29 though next year, so if he wants a spot on the team for the next few years, he needs to produce in his limited role.

Outfielders:

Alfonso Soriano - The streakiest player on the Cubs will be back next year and the year after that and the year after that and so on. His numbers should be similar in 2009. There was no reason to start worrying about his decline in production, yet.

Kosuke Fukudome - The player who went from fan favorite to Sweet Lou's dog house is due $36 million the next three years. Hendry and Piniella will be a tough spot about what to do with him considering the team's financial investment in him. He does have four minor league options which are possible. But if they acquire an everyday rightfielder, Fukudome could be moved to centerfield where his inability to hit would be easier to swallow.

Felix Pie - This is the year that Pie has run out of minor league options. He has been "given" the job the past few years only to have it taken away from him after limited playing time. He will probably compete for the centerfield job with Fukudome in spring training. Whichever player hits will most likely be given the job.

Reed Johnson - Depending on how much Johnson is looking for, he could be playing in centerfield in some kind of platoon role with Pie/Fukudome. He is arbitration eligible and can refuse any minor league assignments. However, his performance with the Cubs probably raised the interest of some teams, likely netting him a few offers in the offseason.

Brad Snyder - Most of you are asking, "Who is Brad Snyder?". The Cubs picked him up off waivers from the Indians at the end of the season. He was Cleveland's first round pick in 2003 and a top ten prospect from 2003 to 2007. He struggled in AAA in 2008 and was released. He has plus-power, plus-speed and a plus-arm but he strikes out a lot. He was also out of options which means the Cubs must keep him on their roster to keep him in the organization. Most likely, he will compete for a backup outfield job in spring training.

Pitchers:

Carlos Zambrano - El Toro is set to get paid for the next 5 years. Cubs fans know what to expect from Carlos and will probably get more of the same this year.

Ted Lilly - Lilly is entering the third year of his four year deal. He has been pretty much what the Cubs have expected. He's pitched over 200 innings the past two years with his ERA right around 4.00. Next year at 33, his numbers may start to decline but there's no reason to believe it will be by much.

Rich Harden - The Cubs picked up Harden's $7 million option after the season ended which was a no brainer. There's no reason to expect him to start 30 games, but if he can start around 20, he should definitely be worth his salary. If you were wondering, he started 25 games last year with a 2.07 ERA.

Jason Marquis - His contract is nearing its end with the Cubs, finally. He has been a below average starter his last two years, despite only giving up 37 homeruns the past two years, only 2 more than his last year with the Cardinals. He will be making $10 million next year, $3 million more than Rich Harden.

Rich Hill - So what to do with Rich Hill? He's finally out of minor league options which means he's either here to stay or he's gone for good. He will still be making the minimum in 2009, so financially it isn't a big dilemma. The dilemma is possibly getting rid a pitcher who showed flashes of being a top tier pitcher. In 2007, he pitched 195 innings with 183 strikeouts and a 3.92 ERA. In 2008, in the minors he walked 44 batters in 39 innings. He also struck out 57 in those 39 innings. Which Rich Hill will show up in 2009? He's not young anymore, so if does flop, it might be a little easier to cut ties with a pitcher who will be 30 after the 2009 season.

Chad Gaudin - The other piece in the Harden deal, Gaudin is arbitration eligible and out of options. He could compete for a starting job next year, but most likely he will end up in the bullpen to be a middle reliever.

Neal Cotts/Michael Wuertz - Both pitchers are arbitration eligible and out of options. Both have also had below average years for the Cubs. Because of the Cubs lack of left handed options, Cotts will probably be offered arbitration while Wuertz will most likely be moved.

Kevin Hart/Jeff Samardzija - Both young pitchers performed well at time during the season however both have two minor league options left and could be sent down to work on some things. Chances are though, that unless they are blown up in the spring, they will both be back in the pen.

Sean Marshall/Angel Guzman - The two pitchers could be competing for the fifth spot in the rotation that has been occupied by Jason Marquis the past 2 years. Marshall has proved to be adequate as a back end of the rotation guy while Guzman has proved to be injury prone. Both have one option left, but Guzman is more likely to end up in AAA to start the regular season.

Carlos Marmol - The most important bullpen member will be part of the biggest question going into the season, "Who is the closer?". Of course, it all depends on whether the Cubs will bring back Kerry Wood. If they do, for how long? And will Marmol ever close while Wood is still on the team. It'll be interesting to see what the Cubs decide to do.

Free Agents:

Ryan Dempster - The Cubs All-Star pitcher will be in demand because of the lack of starting pitching on the free agent market. It seems both Dempster and the Cubs want the same thing, and will probably sign him to a deal with each side giving a little more than they'd like.

Kerry Wood - The longest tenured Cub took less money to stay with the Cubs because he felt it was the right thing to do after all his injuries. Will he feel the same way this offseason? In the end, I feel the same will happen with Wood, possibly taking less money for more long term security to stay on the North Side.

Jim Edmonds - The in-season addition of Edmonds ended up working out for both sides. The Cubs were able to fill a hole and Edmonds was able to prove he could still play. It is most likely that both sides will part ways next year, with Edmonds possibly retiring.

Bob Howry - Howry's first two years with the Cubs worked out very well, but the last one did not. He struggled all year and at 36 next year it is hard to imagine bringing him back.

Daryle Ward - Injuries plagued Ward all year, and with a younger, cheaper player in the minors, there's no reason to bring him back.

Of course, anything can change at any time in professional sports but as of now, this seems to be the team we will be bringing back next year. It being only October 21, I'm not quite sure how I feel about it, but I'm sure there will be changes before the season starts. All I know for sure is it will be a long offseason.

Kevin Foster

Former Cubs pitcher, Kevin Foster died on Saturday at the age of 39, in an Oklahoma City hospital. Foster had been battling renal cell carcinoma for the past six months.

Foster spent seven years in the Major Leagues after being drafted in the 29th round of the 1987 draft by the Montreal Expos as an infielder. After three years, he was converted to a pitcher. He was then traded to Seattle and then to Philadelphia, where he made his Major League debut.

When asked about Foster, then Expos scout Stan Zielinski said,

''I went to watch another player at Evanston
in 1987 when I stumbled upon a skinny third baseman with a perpetual smile and a rocket arm. It was Kevin Foster. I asked his coach, 'Can he pitch, too?' His coach said, 'Yes.' I came back, watched him pitch, and after he went 10-1 on
the mound and hit 25 or 30 home runs for Kishwaukee, we signed him. He was a great athlete who started with Montreal as an infielder. Three years later, he converted to a pitcher with a sneaky fastball and a great changeup.''

In 1994, he was traded to the Chicago Cubs for pitcher Shawn Boskie. In his five years with the Cubs, he went 32-28 with his best year being 1995 when he went 12-11 with a 4.51 ERA. In 1997, Foster's first half record was 10-5 becoming the first Cub since Greg Maddux in 1992 to record 10 first half wins. Also in 1997, with the Cubs losing a National League record 14 games to start a season, Foster ended that streak with the first win of the season against the Mets at Shea Stadium.

Foster experienced arm injuries after the 1997 season which held him out of baseball for several years. In 2001, he made a brief comeback with the Texas Rangers before retiring.

Foster grew up in Evanston and was a lifelong Cubs fan. His dream growing up was to pitch for the Cubs in Wrigley Field. He got to fulfill that dream 42 times, with a 19-9 record and 3.78 ERA in Wrigley Field as a Cub.

The Cubs released a statement after hearing about the loss of Foster this weekend:

He was popular with his teammates, the organization and fans, and he will be tremendously missed.

Amen.

And just like that, it's over...

"The length of the season and the quickness it can
end is a slap in the face."
– Mike Greenberg

A $118 million payroll. An MVP Japanese import. 7 All-Stars. 97 wins. 6 runs in the NLDS. And just like that, the season is over.

Fans couldn't help but feel that this year was supposed to be different. The Cubs hadn't lost 3 games in a row until June 19. They only lost 4 or more consecutive games twice all season. They were swept only 3 times all year. For the first time in a while, the Cubs were giving fans reason to believe in them. And even more than usual, we did. This felt like it could be it. It was the 100th year anniversary of the last World Series win. The Cubs had a team of All-Stars. They were almost unbeatable at home. They finished with the best record in the National League. This year, those signs at Wrigley felt like they could be turning into reality. Why Not Us? It's Gonna Happen! Then just like that, this year ended like the previous 100, in utter disappointment.

So Cubs fans do what anyone does when they've lost something they've invested so much into. We grieve. And as well all know, there are 5 gut wrenching stages of grief.

1. Denial - Did Ryan Dempster really walk 7 batters in 4 2/3 innings after walking 7 in all of September? Did he really walk the bases loaded, then give up a homerun to a hitter who was averaging a homerun every 50 plate appearances? Did all the Cubs infielders really make errors in game 2? Did the Cubs really lose the first two games, 17-5 at home after having by far the best run differential in the National League? These are only a few of the questions that Cubs fan has been asking themselves over and over.

2. Anger - No Cubs fan could not help but be angry. Whether you've been a Cubs fan for 50 years, 25 years or 1 year. To see the season end as quickly as it did was infuriating. To follow a team everyday for 8 months of the year and have them go down without a fight is the worst thing that could've happened. If they were just going to roll over, they shouldn't have even played this season. If they were going to break our hearts, they should have done it in April or May, not now. How could they let us down like this?

3. Bargaining - I mean, there has to be a reason that the best team in the National League lost, right? Sometimes, the best team doesn't win in the playoffs. Look at the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006. No one thought they would win a game in the playoffs, and they won it all. Or the 2001 Seattle Mariners, they won 116 games and lost in the ALCS. 116 wins! Maybe our team just wasn't built for a short series. Maybe the nerves just got to us. Maybe we weren't meant to win.

4. Depression - There was a "memorial" for the team outside of Wrigley Field after the sweep. Several Cubs fans are selling their loyalty on Ebay and offering to burn all of their apparel and memorabilia. But for this, I'll just post this depressing letter from Mark DeRosa's blog from a heartbroken Cubs fan:

Mark,
I wonder, this morning, if we (the fans) don't owe you (the players) an apology. It seemed clear from the expressions and the body language that you guys were not having a whole lot of fun out there. We robbed you guys of the simple joy of playing a baseball game. We asked for too much. We turned winning a baseball game into something that it is not...a source of omnipotent happiness or redemption or glory...and many were cruel and divisive when they didn't get what they wanted. I am sorry.
I wonder if this thing has gotten too big, if 100 years of hope and heartbreak for untold millions has become a burden too great for 25 mere mortals to shoulder. I fear that the Cubs are doomed to failure. In a strange way I am okay with that. After all, I have been a Cubs fan for as long as I can remember. I can no more change that about myself than I can change my blood type. And the lessons that I have
learned from my relationship with the Cubs...about faith, and love and loss and perseverance and hope...are more important than winning a baseball game, or 11 baseball games, could ever be.

And finally...

5. Acceptance - This significantly varies from fan to fan. Some have already accepted the loss, while it may take some until the first pitch of the 2009 season. And then there are the few that will never accept it. But for the most part, everyone will. We always do. We did after Alex Gonzalez's booted grounder in 2003. We did it 2004, after the Cubs choked away a 2.5 game lead in the Wild Card with 9 games left. We even did it back in 1984 when Leon Durham let a ball go through his legs in Game 5 of the NLCS. And the older fans did it when the Cubs got blown out at home in Game 7 of the World Series. Many fans have invested so much time and effort to just give up hope now. Some day it will eventually happen, it has to. And no fan wants to have given up before that happens. Because when it does happen, the feeling with be indescribable, and all fans want that experience. Maybe every year that they don't win, will make a World Series win that much sweeter. You have to experience pain to appreciate pleasure. And once we accept the pain of this year, we'll continue to hope that next year will bring us that indescribable pleasure.