Kosuke Fu...Wait....What?

Kosuke Fukudome (pronounced KOH-skay foo-koo-DOUGH-may) was at the top of the Cubs wish list this offseason much to the surprise of many Cubs fans. Not only did the Cubs target the exact type of player they needed, they succeeded in signing him. It's been an unusual feeling for Cubs fans who are used to coming in 2nd or 3rd in free agent bidding. Mike Piazza in 1998. Mike Hampton in 2000 (thank goodness for that Colorado school system). But even the free agents the Cubs did sign never quite turned out. Mel Rojas in 1996 (3 yr/13.75 mill). Jeff Blauser in 1997 (2yr/8.4 mill). And who could forget Todd Hundley's historically awful contract (4 yr/23.5 mill). So not only did the Cubs get two of their top free agent targets last year, Alfonso Soriano and Ted Lilly, they got their man this year.

Last year, the Cubs finished 18th in both OBP at .333 and Runs at 4.64 per game. Maybe the front office finally realized that to score runs, teams need baserunners no matter what Tim McCarver thinks. So they went out and signed the left handed outfielder (which Jim Hendry loves, just ask Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones, Felix Pie, Daryl Ward, Juan Pierre, Todd Hollandworth, Corey Patterson, and Jeromey Burnitz and thats just since 2005) who had a career .397 OBP in Japan. Its still unknown where he'll hit in the lineup and will depend on whether the Cubs get their next target, Brian Roberts, but we'll see how that plays out. As of now, I see the Cubs slotting Fukudome in the 5th slot behind Soriano, Theriot, Lee and Ramirez.

In 1995, seven professional teams bid for the rights for Fukudome out of high school but were declined because of his desire to play for the Chunichi Dragons. He instead joined an amateur team and was later selected to represent Japan in the 1996 Olympics. He was the youngest player to ever be selected for an Olympic baseball team and helped Japan finish with the silver medal. In 1998, he was drafted by his favorite childhood team, the Chunichi Dragons in the first round as a shortstop. He hit well his rookie year, posting a .284 batting average with 16 homeruns, but his defense was well below average. He had a very strong arm but could not consistently field groundballs. His second year he was converted to a third baseman but his fielding did not improve. It was not until he was converted to an outfielder his third year that he was able to put his speed and arm in the field to good use. He went on to win 4 gold gloves as a right fielder for the Dragons. Despite all his fielding troubles, Fukudome consistently hit. The past six years he has posted a .414 OBP and a .584 SLG, and won the MVP award in 2006. That year the 6' tall outfielder hit.351/.438/.653 with 117 Runs and 104 RBIs.

So how will Fukudome's stats in Japan translate in the MLB? Lou Piniella says he's a cross between Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. Former Pacific League manager and new Royals manager Trey Hillman compares him to Ichiro and last year's Japanese import Akinori Iwamura who hit .285/.359/.411 in 123 games last year. "He's short to the ball, he's got great balance, he stays inside the ball," Hillman said of Fukudome. "He's got more balance than left-handed, Japanese-style hitters with the leg lift." Keith Law took a different approach and actually compared him to a non-Japanese player, Bobby Abreu, "Fukudome's best attribute as a hitter is his willingness to work deep counts, reminiscent of Bobby Abreu's approach and results." Cubs assistant GM, Randy Bush took his comparison even further by comparing him to Steve Finley and stating, "He's one of those guys who does everything so fluid and graceful it stands out in your mind." I hope he's comparing him to the young Steve Finley. On second thought, he should stop comparing him to Steve Finley at all, it's making me worry.

Heres a look at a few players' stats from their Japanese league days and their MLB days:

Ichiro Suzuki:
JPN: .353/.421/.522 in 9 years
MLB: .333/.379/.437 in 7 years

Hideki Matsui:
JPN: .304/.413/.582 in 10 years
MLB: .295/.371/.485 in 5 years

Kaz Matsui:
JPN: .309/.361/.486 in 9 years
MLB: .272/.325/.387 in 4 years

Tadahito Iguchi:
JPN: .271/.349/.471 in 8 years
MLB: .276/.347/.421 in 3 years

Kenji Johjima:
JPN: .299/.360/.517 in 11 years
MLB: .289/.327/.442 in 2 years

So Taguchi:
JPN: .277/.387/.333 in 10 years
MLB: .283/.336/..391 in 6 years

Tsuyoshi Shinjo:
JPN: .254/.305/.432 in 13 years
MLB: .245/.299/.370 in 3 years

Kosuke Fukudome:
JPN: .305/.397/.543 in 8 years
MLB: ???/???/???

Looking at these other players it seems reasonable to expect batting average to stay about the same, OBP to decrease slightly, and SLG to decrease a decent amount. Except for So Taguchi whose SLG increased almost .060 points. But he was a teammate of Mark McGwire at one point, so it makes sense. Looking at PECOTA's projection of Fukudome, they expect his stats to drop off only slightly next year:

80 R/30 2B/4 3B/15 HR/58 RBI/70 BB/94 SO/9 SB/.289 BA/.401 OBP/.504 SLG

Nate Silver also commented:

PECOTA holds Fukudome’s playing time projection down because he missed about half of last season due to elbow surgery. If he’s healthy in spring training, that should no longer be a concern. And look at that pretty OBP! Fukudome is unlikely to be a huge power threat, but that on-base ability should address one of the Cubs‘ primary areas of weakness. His top comparables give you a pretty good idea of what sort of player we’re looking at; his is a fairly common profile for a left-handed outfielder.

His top comparables are listed as:

1. J.D. Drew
2. Gene Hermanski
3. Jim Edmonds
4. Fred Lynn
5. Johnny Grubb
6. Andy Van Slyke
7. Bobby Abreu

Will he be worth the $48 million dollar contract? I think he will be. Looking at the contracts being given to outfielders the past two years, this deal could look like a bargain. Torii Hunter will be making $18 million a year for 5 years. Andruw Jones will be making over $19 million for the next two years. Light hitting Juan Pierre will continue making $9 million for the next 4 years. And Gary Matthews is in the second year of his 5 year, $50 million dollar deal. However, most people worry that a Japanese player will take a while to adjust to America, which could be true. So far though, Fukudome seems comfortable with making these adjustments. One of the main reasons he chose the Cubs is because of Lou Piniella, who managed Japanese players Ichiro, Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Kazuhiro Sasaki in Seattle. He compares Piniella to his former manager Senichi "Burning Hat" Hosino, who baseball-reference.com describes as "known for fighting with players from other teams … screaming at players, hitting his own players and kicking dirt at umpires and attacking them." In a Japanese interview, Fukudome said, 'If Piniella is like Hoshino, I will like him."

Only a few more months remain for us to wait and see the Cubs' first Japanese player take his position where other once loved players have. The player his teammates will refer to as "Dome" will run out to right field wearing #1 and undoubtedly will receive the "Salaam" salute once given to Andre Dawson and Sammy Sosa. I don't know how good he will actually be, but what I do know is it was only 2 years ago that our outfielders were Todd Hollandsworth, Corey Patterson and Jeromey Burnitz. So I'm okay with taking a chance on a Japanese MVP.