Is Peavy Possible?

The World Series isn't over yet, but there's already a huge name being mentioned in trade rumors, Jake Peavy. Because of Padres' owner John Moore's divorce, the team is forced to slash their payroll and inevitably go into a rebuilding mode. It's been speculated that San Diego will have to lower their payroll from $73 million last year to around $40 million next year. Peavy is set to make $8 million, $15 million, $16 million, $17 million and a $22 million team option in the next 5 years. It would be tough for the Padres to have one player taking up over 40% of their payroll, and it would also be tough for Peavy to pitch for a team that has little shot of competing over the rest of his contract. So both sides are doing what they feel is necessary going into 2009.

Peavy has stated he wants to stay in the National League and has more specifically metioned 5 teams; Braves, Dodgers, Astros, Cardinals and Cubs. He has a full no trade clause so he has a good deal of control over any trade that would happen, including his desire for his $22 million option to be guaranteed in 2013 and a full no trade clause throughout his contract.

So now Cubs fans are asking themselves, "Is Peavy possible?". Can we add one of the NL's best starters, a pitcher who has had a sub 3.00 ERA four out of the past five years? There are conflicting reports but it definitely doesn't hurt to speculate.

It has been stated that the Padres are looking for a centerfield prospect who is MLB ready and two young starting pitchers, also MLB ready. The big rumor is that Peavy is likely going to go to Atlanta for two of their top prospects, Tommy Hanson and Jordan Schafer, and one of their starting middle infielders from last year, either Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson. According to Baseball America, Hanson was the Braves 9th overall prospect going into 2008. The 22 year old right hander started 22 games in AA last year and finished with an 8-4 record and a 3.03 ERA. He also had 114 strikeouts in 98 innings. Jordan Schafer was the Braves top prospect going into 2008 and the 25th in all of baseball. In AA, Schafer finished with a line of .269/.378/.471 including 10 HRs and 51 RBIs in 84 games. The possible final piece of the offer has been mentioned as either Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson. Escobar played his first entire season for the Braves last year. The shortstop put up .288/.366/.401 in 136 games. Johnson, the 26 year old starting second baseman for the Braves, played in 150 games and put up .287/.349/.446 last season.

Apparently the Braves have denied offering up these two prospects in this deal but no team will ever come out and confirm players that they're offering in trades. Either way, it seems that this is the top offer on the table for Peavy right now. So, can the Cubs beat it?

Well the deal would have to revolve around Cubs top prospect Josh Vitters. The 18 year old third base prospect played 61 games in low A ball last year. He put up .328/.365/.498 including 25 doubles and 37 RBIs. According to Baseball America, Vitters is the 43rd overall prospect in the MLB. The Padres' top prospect is third baseman Chase Headley, so they're not as likely to trade for another third baseman as they are an outfielder. However, they did use Headley in the outfield last year so it's not impossible for them to take on another third baseman.

Another piece of the deal could be Cubs top outfield prospect Tyler Colvin. The Cubs third prospect overall, the 23 year old played a full season in AA. Colvin's average dropped from .291 in AA last year to .256 in 2008. However, he did hit 14 homeruns and drove in 80 runs. Going into 2008, Colvin was the 75th overall prospect in the MLB according to Baseball America.

The Cubs top pitching prospect, Jose Ceda would most likely have to be involved in any deal for Peavy. The 21 year old closer pitched in 22 games for AA and posted a 2.08 ERA while striking out 42 batters in 30.1 innings. However, because Ceda has been converted to a closer his value as a trade piece is decreased.

Players with major league experience also could be involved in a deal for Peavy. Felix Pie, the Cubs top prospect just one year ago would most likely be involved in any deal for Peavy. Kevin Towers has shown interest in Pie in past and that likely has not changed. Pie's value has diminished however, so the Cubs could decide whether to sell low and hang on and see if he can turn it around.

Ryan Theriot is coming off a career year which when looked into further isn't as impressive as you would think. The starting shortshop hit only 24 extra base hits in over 600 plate appearances. Carlos Zambrano had 9 extra base hits in about 80 plate appearances. However, Theriot did walk over 80 times so his OBP was not just a result of his high batting average. The Padres have been trying to move Khalil Greene for years now and could be looking for a cheap alternative in a deal for Peavy and Theriot could be a player they target.

Jeff Samardzija also could be an interesting piece for the Padres. Samardzija pitched in the majors just one year after being drafted and had some success in the set up role. He struggled at times with his control as most young pitchers do, but still ended the season with respectable numbers and pretty much guaranteed himself a spot in the bullpen again next year. However, because of Samardzija's loaded contract to keep him in baseball, he has a full no trade clause and likely wouldn't waive it.

An interesting possibility would be making the deal around Carlos Marmol. Longtime closer, Trevor Hoffman has be in decline the past few years and Marmol could slide right into the closer role for the Padres. He is young and inexpensive and has been nearly unhittable the past two years. The Cubs also have the dilemma of what to do with Kerry Wood since Marmol is waiting in the wings for his chance.

So what would it take to get Peavy? I would have to imagine a deal revolving around Josh Vitters and Carlos Marmol would be a start. However, the Padres would most likely require two more top prospects such as Colvin and Ceda. San Diego GM Kevin Towers likes to build his bullpen with inexpensive pitchers who have low walk rates. Marmol does tend to walk a lot of batters, but he also led all relievers in strikeouts last year. So it is hard to guess how much Towers a pitcher like Marmol.

In the end, I would have to imagine the Cubs don't have the pieces to get it done. They traded 3 of their top ten prospects in the Rich Harden deal so their system is not as deep as it was at the beginning of the year, not that it was deep to begin with. Also, the Padres top prospects play the same positions as the Cubs possible trade pieces which diminishes their value and makes a trade even less likely. So unless Jim Hendry somehow pulls a fast one on Kevin Towers, I believe Ryan Dempster will be resigned and the Cubs will roll with the rotation they had last year, with their only possible change being with the 5th starter.

I know it won't happen but I can hope...

Peavy, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly

Wow.