Sunday, April 5, 2009

My Infamous 72 Guaran-damn-tees for the 2009 MLB Season

Its that time of the year again. Time for me to unleash my inner soothsayer for the upcoming 2009 season. So with opening night upon us, here are my Infamous 72 Guaran-damn-tees:

1. Ticket sales will not be significantly effected by the economy. The teams that have struggled to sell tickets will continue to do so. And the teams that always sell out will also do so. So PNC park will be empty while Fenway will remain packed. While some free agents were hurt by owners not wanting to spend the money, others had no problem throwing cash at players.
Richard Lapchick, president and chief executive of the National Consortium for Academics and Sports, said: “I think that the public in general does not care that much about the athlete’s salary. They want that escape. When people are depressed about life or the economy or whatever it happens to be, they gain solace from being able to escape at a sports event.”
Bring on opening day.

2. Alex Rodriguez will miss the first 4 weeks of the season, but then come back and do what he always does, hit. Yes, there will be an incredible amount of press about his steroid use and personal life (divorce, Madonna, call girls) but Alex Rodriguez wasn't considered one of the best players of our time for nothing. And that won't change this season.

3. Gary Sheffield will end the season hitting 18 homeruns which will put him over that 500 plateau. But he'll still hate everyone but Gary Sheffield.

4. Jake Peavy will be traded at the deadline, to the Cubs. In celebration, I will buy all my friends a round when it is announced.

5. Dustin Pedroia will NOT win MVP again. Seriously? Pedroia? He wasn't even the MVP of his team.
Pedroia - .869 OPS / 6.9 Runs Created per game
Youkilis - .959 OPS / 8.1 Runs Created per game

6. Pablo Sandoval will win the NL Rookie of the Year. If you haven't heard of him, he's the 22 year old starting third baseman for the Giants. In the off-season, he won the Venezuelan Home Run Derby, beating Andres Galarraga, Magglio Ordonez, Bobby Abreu, Carlos Zambrano and Miguel Cabrera. Sandoval will be followed in voting by Cameron Maybin and Jordan Zimmerman.

7. Travis Snider will win the AL Rookie of the Year. The Toronto Blue Jays outfielder will be given a chance to play everyday, and if he continues to hit lefties and righties like he did in the minors, he should win easily. It also helps that David Price and Matt Wieters will be starting their seasons in the minor leagues.

8. After finally getting a contract extension, Ryan Howard will hit over 50 homeruns for the first time in 3 years. He will also keep his streak of consecutive seasons in the top 5 of MVP voting, with 3, alive.

9. This year, Ryan Howard will hit more homeruns than the entire Cincinnati Reds outfield.

10. Adam Dunn will break his streak of 4 straight years with exactly 40 homeruns. This year he'll hit his number, 44.

11. Still no Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens in the MLB this year. Pros vs. Joes maybe?

12. Dan Uggla won't blow the All-Star game this year, mostly because he won't make it. Utley and Phillips will take care of those duties. And the NL will FINALLY win this year.

13. In the NL, Aaron Harang will beat out Todd Helton and Eric Byrnes for NL Comeback Player of the Year.

14. In the AL, Justin Verlander will win AL Comeback player of the year, beating out catchers Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada.

15. A lot of teams will regret not paying $5M for Bobby Abreu. (::cough::Ibanez::cough::Phillies)

16. The Giants will really really regret giving Zito that contract even more this year. Imagine what they could have done with that $18M and still have a rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Randy Johnson. I mean, Bobby Abreu, Orlando Hudson, Joe Crede AND Pat Burrell signed for a combined $17.4M this year. Speaking of which...

17. Brian Sabean will not be fired this year. I can't believe it either.

18. Speaking of firings, the first manager to be fired will be Ron Washington after the Rangers get off to a slow start, which they usually do anyways. The Rangers just can't compete with the starting pitching they have. Millwood and Padilla? Give Ron a break.

19. Cole Hamels will still make 29 starts this season, despite all the concerns about his elbow from all the national sports media.

20. However, Joe Mauer will miss at least half of the season due to those nagging back problems. And the Twins will start considering moving Mauer to full-time DH.

21. Francisco Rodriguez will not come anywhere near 62 saves this season. In fact, he'll miss two months of the season and will only save 24 games total.

22. Bobby Jenks will struggle. No explanation necessary, you'll see.

23. Matt Kemp will not hit 40 homeruns and steal 40 bases this year. In fact, he wont do it in his career. No matter what he thinks.

24. Jay Cutler will sing the 7th inning stretch and throw out a first pitch at Wrigley Field this summer. However, for fear of breaking any significant players hand trying to catch it, Piniella will send Koyie Hill and his bionic hand out there.

25. He let me down last year by going and getting hurt, but Troy Tulowitzki will win the gold glove this year. He's far and away the best defensive shortstop in the NL.

26. Because of his back injuries, Joe Mauer will not win the Gold Glove this year. Dioner Navarro will take the award this year.

27. The Cubs will be sold. Finally.

28. Just two years ago, the Tigers came out of nowhere and won the AL but then lost in 5 games to the Cardinals. Then the following year, they missed the playoffs. Last year, the Rays came out of nowhere and won the AL but then lost in 5 games to the Phillies. This year however, the Rays won't miss the playoffs.

29. Curt Schilling will talk about a comeback. Several times.

30. The Orioles will be the worst team in the AL. They've got some solid young players with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Matt Weiters but their starting pitching is pretty bad, Jeremy Guthrie, Koji Uehara, Mark Hendrickson, Alfredo Simon and Adam Eaton. Maybe they should've held on to Daniel Cabrera after all.

31. Hank Blalock will finally rebound after three years of less than 20 homeruns. Hard to believe that he's still only 28 years old. I mean, he's younger than Ryan Howard!

32. Carl Pavano won't last very long as Cleveland's third starter. I'll be surprised if he makes it to the All-Star Game.

33. However, he will last longer than Sidney Ponson in the Royals rotation. How does that guy continue to get work?

34. The Astros are starting Kaz Matsui, Michael Bourn and a platoon of Geoff Blum/Jeff Keppinger. They have three other players in their lineup who will each hit more homeruns than those four combined; Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence.

35. Mark Prior won't pitch this year either.

36. Milton Bradley will only have one meltdown this year. However, it won't be with an announcer or teammate. That leaves the fans and umpires. On second thought, he will only have two meltdowns this year.

37. I will win both my fantasy leagues this year. BOOM!

38. Neither Bartolo Colon nor Jose Contreras will finish the year in the White Sox rotation.

39. The All-Star Game will be filled with a lot of Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs. Sadly, the rule that states every team must have a representative will be the only thing holding back an all Cubs vs. Yankees/Red Sox game.

40. A.J. Pierzynski will remain the most hated player in the MLB. But Dustin Pedroia will be right behind him.

41. Andruw Jones won't be awful this year. He's going to a hitter friendly park and will hit cleanup against lefties. He's gotta do better, right?

42. The White Sox won't be the only team snowed out this year. However, the Twins still won't rethink their plan for an outdoor stadium. Forecast for Minneapolis on Opening Day in the MLB? 38 degrees with snow flurries.

43. Manny Ramirez will continue to do what Manny Ramirez does. Hit and goof around. However, Dodgers fans won't care as much since they don't have to worry about the Yankees.

44. Bud Selig will continue to deny the Steroid Era being his fault. However, steroids will continue to run rampant.

45. The list of the other 103 players who failed the steroid test in 2003 will be leaked and all hell will break loose. Well, for a few months at least.

46. A team will give in to Pedro Martinez's salary demands somewhat and he will pitch in 2009. Because of the Angels top three starting pitchers being hurt, the early guess is them.

47. Oakland will surprise a lot of people and give the Angels a run for their money. However, because they're starting three rookie starting pitchers, they'll fall short in the end.

48. On the opposite end, the San Francisco Giants won't live up to their expectations (several predicted 2nd or 3rd). They'll come in 4th because of their horrendous offense that people seemed to forget about when they made their predictions. And also because the Padres are even worse.

49. The Mets will really regret giving Oliver Perez that 3 year/$36M contract. Though they should've known what they were getting themselves into.

50. Ryan Spilborghs will have a breakout year leading off for the Rockies. He'll post a high OBP and score over 85 runs. However, Seth Smith won't last past May.

51. Cliff Lee will not be anywhere near as dominating as he was last year. However, he won't be as awful as he was in 2007 either. His 2005 season is right where he should be, 3.79 ERA and 143 Ks.

52. The Marlins will play well this year, however because of all the talent in NL East, they won't make it above fourth place. However, they have the talent to compete in the next several years for the next several years.

53. With several great pitchers retired or on their way to retiring (Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine), the MLB will see an influx of young pitching stars (Clayton Kershaw, Joba Chamberlain, Yovani Gallardo, Max Scherzer and David Price).

54. The MLB Network will be a huge hit. It's all baseball, all the time. It should be more successful than the NFL Network since baseball games are on every day. All I know is, I can't wait for Opening Day. Thank God for 2 TVs.

55. Besides Jake Peavy, the trading deadline will be a dud. Most teams will be afraid to add more salary and will just go with what they have, either already on their MLB roster or in their farm system.

56. Alex Gordon will break out this year. Sadly, not many people will notice because he's on the Royals. Well, maybe they will notice if they watch the MLB Network.

57. Brett Gardner will not be good. Some of you may say that it isn't much of a prediction but if you have listened or read anything from ESPN, it definitely is pretty bold. (Peter Gammons wrote, "If you can't root for him, you can't enjoy the game", while Michael Kay said pitchers better not walk him otherwise it is an automatic double. That's the last thing baseball fans need, another Yankee being overhyped.

58. Chris Davis will hit 40 homeruns joining Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun as the only five players to hit 40 or more homeruns in 2009.

59. Willy Taveras and Jose Reyes will both steal over 70 bases next year. Despite Taveras' low OBP, he will play everyday and lead off for the Reds. I'd have to imagine Dusty Baker will give him the green light every time he's on base. Jose Reyes also has the green light and has a decent OBP which should make it much easier for him to steal 70.

60. The AL Cy Young will be James Shields. Yes, James Shields. He'll get the wins and his team will make the playoffs which is really all a pitcher needs to win the award. C.C. Sabathia will struggle early which will hurt his chances. The AL East is not the NL Central.

61. Johan Santana will win the NL Cy Young this year. His numbers were good enough last year, but Tim Lincecum's were better. Santana will be a little better this year and Lincecum will be a little worse. Peavy won't get the wins he needs, and Webb's Diamondbacks won't make the playoffs.

62. The AL MVP will be a hotly contested award this year. Last year, no one really stood out so the voters obviously decided to give it to the shortest player in the league. But this year, Grady Sizemore will have a great season going 35 homeruns and 35 stolen bases. Also, the Indians will win the Central which usually helps a lot with voters for some reason.

63. The NL MVP will be Manny Ramirez. He was being talked about last year after only 53 games in a Dodgers uniform. He'll do what he always does and with the Dodgers making the playoffs, he'll be a shoe in.

64. In the AL West, the Angels will take the division crown. However, it won't be as easy as it usually is. The Angels are starting the season with three starting pitchers on the DL and the Athletics offense is much improved. If the A's had any kind of reliable staff, they would unseat the Angels as the division winners, this year at least.

65. The AL East is going to be ridiculous. It could have the three best teams in the AL, meaning one of those teams won't make the playoffs. In the end, the Red Sox will win the division, followed by the Rays for the wildcard. That is going to leave out the Yankees. Yes, they spent a ton of money in the offseason. But with Alex Rodriguez out for a month and with the slow starting Teixiera having to carry the load early, their offense won't be good enough to hang with the Red Sox and Rays. But it'll be really really close. Those three teams won't finish more than 6 games apart.

66. No big names have really left or joined the AL Central meaning the division should play out similar to last year, right? Not quite. The Indians will win the division with Victor Martinez and Fausto Carmona coming back from injuries. They won't run away with the division though. The Twins will compete all year like they always do, and the return of Francisco Liriano will be a big reason. The White Sox will fall to third, being unable to overcome the loss of Javier Vazquez and having to start Dewayne Wise and Chris Getz every day.

67. The NL West is the worst division in baseball. However, the Dodgers will do just fine. They'll win around 90 games, which will win them the division by more than 8 games. The Diamondbacks defense gets worse with Felipe Lopez replacing Orlando Hudson, and they still have Mark Reynolds out there. That definitely hurts when Brandon Webb is on the mound. Coming in third will be the Rockies, followed by the Giants and then the god awful Padres.

68. The NL East is similar to the AL East, with having three of the best teams in the league. The Mets, Braves and defending champion Phillies could all win the divison. But that's not what this blog is about, it's about guarantees. So I'm guaranteeing the division will shake out like so; Mets, Braves, Phillies, Marlins and then Nationals. Yes, no Phillies in the playoffs either. Mark it down.

69. And now the NL Central. I'm sure you all can guess who I have winning the division. Yes, the Cubs just like every other baseball analyst. However, I'm going with the Reds to come in second. They have a good young staff and a solid young core. They'll be followed by Albert Pujols who won't be able to put the team on his shoulders this year like he always does. And the bottom half will be the Brewers, Astros and then the Pirates.

70. The ALCS will be the Rays vs. the Red Sox yet again. This new rivalry will go all 7 with the Red Sox prevailing. The Red Sox pitching will be just a little bit better than the Rays in the series. And of course there will be several scuffles along the way.

71. The NLCS will pit the Cubs vs. the Mets. The Cubs will win it in six games thanks to their starting staff. Good Oliver Perez and Bad Oliver Perez will both show up in the series with Bad Oliver losing game six.

72. So it will be the dream matchup for television, the Boston Red Sox vs the Chicago Cubs. ESPN could explode because of all the over exposure this matchup will receive. But in the end, the Red Sox will win yet another World Series. It will be a close series but the Cubs won't be able to pull it out, but hey at least they made it out of the first round and to the World Series, right? Right? Right?? Oh well, there's always next year.

3 comments:

Louis Reeves said...

I just think it's funny that Carlos Zambrano was in a homerun derby.

Sharone Mitchell said...

If Bartolo Colon isn't a a big name, I don't know what is.

mmp, llc said...

Milton Bradley: two meltdowns ok, but can you tell me how many DL stints?