So what now?

As Tampa Bay and Philadelphia get ready to start the World Series tomorrow, Cubs fans are left thinking, "What now?" Well that and a few other things that would be censored in any publication. But either way, it's time to move on and see who is and isn't coming back for next year's roller coaster ride.

Catchers:

Geovany Soto - The probable Rookie of the Year will be set to make 401K next year and fulfill the same role he had this year as the prime signal caller. He is out of minor league options, but that should not be a problem.

Henry Blanco - Hank White has a $3 million team option for the 2009 season. It will likely be bought out for 300K, and he will probably be resigned for less money, closer to the amount he made this year.

Infielders:

Derrek Lee - Lee is signed at $13 million for the next two years. His numbers were not bad, but were definitely lower than most Cubs fans expected. We shouldn't expect a year like 2005, but his numbers should improve next year.

Mark DeRosa - The most versatile Cub is entering the last year of his contract, one that was thought to be foolish when it was signed. After last years 21 HR performance, DeRosa is the least of the Cubs worries. This year at least.

Aramis Ramirez - The 30 year old did last year what he has done since he got to the Cubs, get on base, slug, and drive in runs. His next two years are guaranteed with the Cubs, but has a player option in 2011. No need to worry about until then though.

Ryan Theriot - The Riot will be back next year either with an auto renewed contract or through arbitration if he qualifies as a Super Two. The shortstop would prefer the latter thanks to his career year which would substantially boost the 428K he would be set to receive in 2009.

Ronny Cedeno - Seems like it was a while ago when Cedeno was given the everyday starting job at shortstop and played in 151 games. But it was only two years ago, and he has not really been given the opportunity to reclaim the job since that year. He is only 25 but is out of minor league options, so unless he is involved in a trade, he will be back next year in the same role he had in 2008.

Mike Fontenot - It is usually hard to keep a player on the roster who is a back up and can only play one position. But its harder to send down a middle infielder whose OPS is .909. Fontenot is set to make the league minimum again next year and because of Cedeno's versatility he should be fine fulfilling his role as the backup second baseman.

Micah Hoffpauir - Next year will finally be the year Hoffpauir makes the team out of spring training. He will take over Daryle Ward's role of pinch hitter extraordinaire. He will be 29 though next year, so if he wants a spot on the team for the next few years, he needs to produce in his limited role.

Outfielders:

Alfonso Soriano - The streakiest player on the Cubs will be back next year and the year after that and the year after that and so on. His numbers should be similar in 2009. There was no reason to start worrying about his decline in production, yet.

Kosuke Fukudome - The player who went from fan favorite to Sweet Lou's dog house is due $36 million the next three years. Hendry and Piniella will be a tough spot about what to do with him considering the team's financial investment in him. He does have four minor league options which are possible. But if they acquire an everyday rightfielder, Fukudome could be moved to centerfield where his inability to hit would be easier to swallow.

Felix Pie - This is the year that Pie has run out of minor league options. He has been "given" the job the past few years only to have it taken away from him after limited playing time. He will probably compete for the centerfield job with Fukudome in spring training. Whichever player hits will most likely be given the job.

Reed Johnson - Depending on how much Johnson is looking for, he could be playing in centerfield in some kind of platoon role with Pie/Fukudome. He is arbitration eligible and can refuse any minor league assignments. However, his performance with the Cubs probably raised the interest of some teams, likely netting him a few offers in the offseason.

Brad Snyder - Most of you are asking, "Who is Brad Snyder?". The Cubs picked him up off waivers from the Indians at the end of the season. He was Cleveland's first round pick in 2003 and a top ten prospect from 2003 to 2007. He struggled in AAA in 2008 and was released. He has plus-power, plus-speed and a plus-arm but he strikes out a lot. He was also out of options which means the Cubs must keep him on their roster to keep him in the organization. Most likely, he will compete for a backup outfield job in spring training.

Pitchers:

Carlos Zambrano - El Toro is set to get paid for the next 5 years. Cubs fans know what to expect from Carlos and will probably get more of the same this year.

Ted Lilly - Lilly is entering the third year of his four year deal. He has been pretty much what the Cubs have expected. He's pitched over 200 innings the past two years with his ERA right around 4.00. Next year at 33, his numbers may start to decline but there's no reason to believe it will be by much.

Rich Harden - The Cubs picked up Harden's $7 million option after the season ended which was a no brainer. There's no reason to expect him to start 30 games, but if he can start around 20, he should definitely be worth his salary. If you were wondering, he started 25 games last year with a 2.07 ERA.

Jason Marquis - His contract is nearing its end with the Cubs, finally. He has been a below average starter his last two years, despite only giving up 37 homeruns the past two years, only 2 more than his last year with the Cardinals. He will be making $10 million next year, $3 million more than Rich Harden.

Rich Hill - So what to do with Rich Hill? He's finally out of minor league options which means he's either here to stay or he's gone for good. He will still be making the minimum in 2009, so financially it isn't a big dilemma. The dilemma is possibly getting rid a pitcher who showed flashes of being a top tier pitcher. In 2007, he pitched 195 innings with 183 strikeouts and a 3.92 ERA. In 2008, in the minors he walked 44 batters in 39 innings. He also struck out 57 in those 39 innings. Which Rich Hill will show up in 2009? He's not young anymore, so if does flop, it might be a little easier to cut ties with a pitcher who will be 30 after the 2009 season.

Chad Gaudin - The other piece in the Harden deal, Gaudin is arbitration eligible and out of options. He could compete for a starting job next year, but most likely he will end up in the bullpen to be a middle reliever.

Neal Cotts/Michael Wuertz - Both pitchers are arbitration eligible and out of options. Both have also had below average years for the Cubs. Because of the Cubs lack of left handed options, Cotts will probably be offered arbitration while Wuertz will most likely be moved.

Kevin Hart/Jeff Samardzija - Both young pitchers performed well at time during the season however both have two minor league options left and could be sent down to work on some things. Chances are though, that unless they are blown up in the spring, they will both be back in the pen.

Sean Marshall/Angel Guzman - The two pitchers could be competing for the fifth spot in the rotation that has been occupied by Jason Marquis the past 2 years. Marshall has proved to be adequate as a back end of the rotation guy while Guzman has proved to be injury prone. Both have one option left, but Guzman is more likely to end up in AAA to start the regular season.

Carlos Marmol - The most important bullpen member will be part of the biggest question going into the season, "Who is the closer?". Of course, it all depends on whether the Cubs will bring back Kerry Wood. If they do, for how long? And will Marmol ever close while Wood is still on the team. It'll be interesting to see what the Cubs decide to do.

Free Agents:

Ryan Dempster - The Cubs All-Star pitcher will be in demand because of the lack of starting pitching on the free agent market. It seems both Dempster and the Cubs want the same thing, and will probably sign him to a deal with each side giving a little more than they'd like.

Kerry Wood - The longest tenured Cub took less money to stay with the Cubs because he felt it was the right thing to do after all his injuries. Will he feel the same way this offseason? In the end, I feel the same will happen with Wood, possibly taking less money for more long term security to stay on the North Side.

Jim Edmonds - The in-season addition of Edmonds ended up working out for both sides. The Cubs were able to fill a hole and Edmonds was able to prove he could still play. It is most likely that both sides will part ways next year, with Edmonds possibly retiring.

Bob Howry - Howry's first two years with the Cubs worked out very well, but the last one did not. He struggled all year and at 36 next year it is hard to imagine bringing him back.

Daryle Ward - Injuries plagued Ward all year, and with a younger, cheaper player in the minors, there's no reason to bring him back.

Of course, anything can change at any time in professional sports but as of now, this seems to be the team we will be bringing back next year. It being only October 21, I'm not quite sure how I feel about it, but I'm sure there will be changes before the season starts. All I know for sure is it will be a long offseason.

Kevin Foster

Former Cubs pitcher, Kevin Foster died on Saturday at the age of 39, in an Oklahoma City hospital. Foster had been battling renal cell carcinoma for the past six months.

Foster spent seven years in the Major Leagues after being drafted in the 29th round of the 1987 draft by the Montreal Expos as an infielder. After three years, he was converted to a pitcher. He was then traded to Seattle and then to Philadelphia, where he made his Major League debut.

When asked about Foster, then Expos scout Stan Zielinski said,

''I went to watch another player at Evanston
in 1987 when I stumbled upon a skinny third baseman with a perpetual smile and a rocket arm. It was Kevin Foster. I asked his coach, 'Can he pitch, too?' His coach said, 'Yes.' I came back, watched him pitch, and after he went 10-1 on
the mound and hit 25 or 30 home runs for Kishwaukee, we signed him. He was a great athlete who started with Montreal as an infielder. Three years later, he converted to a pitcher with a sneaky fastball and a great changeup.''

In 1994, he was traded to the Chicago Cubs for pitcher Shawn Boskie. In his five years with the Cubs, he went 32-28 with his best year being 1995 when he went 12-11 with a 4.51 ERA. In 1997, Foster's first half record was 10-5 becoming the first Cub since Greg Maddux in 1992 to record 10 first half wins. Also in 1997, with the Cubs losing a National League record 14 games to start a season, Foster ended that streak with the first win of the season against the Mets at Shea Stadium.

Foster experienced arm injuries after the 1997 season which held him out of baseball for several years. In 2001, he made a brief comeback with the Texas Rangers before retiring.

Foster grew up in Evanston and was a lifelong Cubs fan. His dream growing up was to pitch for the Cubs in Wrigley Field. He got to fulfill that dream 42 times, with a 19-9 record and 3.78 ERA in Wrigley Field as a Cub.

The Cubs released a statement after hearing about the loss of Foster this weekend:

He was popular with his teammates, the organization and fans, and he will be tremendously missed.

Amen.

And just like that, it's over...

"The length of the season and the quickness it can
end is a slap in the face."
– Mike Greenberg

A $118 million payroll. An MVP Japanese import. 7 All-Stars. 97 wins. 6 runs in the NLDS. And just like that, the season is over.

Fans couldn't help but feel that this year was supposed to be different. The Cubs hadn't lost 3 games in a row until June 19. They only lost 4 or more consecutive games twice all season. They were swept only 3 times all year. For the first time in a while, the Cubs were giving fans reason to believe in them. And even more than usual, we did. This felt like it could be it. It was the 100th year anniversary of the last World Series win. The Cubs had a team of All-Stars. They were almost unbeatable at home. They finished with the best record in the National League. This year, those signs at Wrigley felt like they could be turning into reality. Why Not Us? It's Gonna Happen! Then just like that, this year ended like the previous 100, in utter disappointment.

So Cubs fans do what anyone does when they've lost something they've invested so much into. We grieve. And as well all know, there are 5 gut wrenching stages of grief.

1. Denial - Did Ryan Dempster really walk 7 batters in 4 2/3 innings after walking 7 in all of September? Did he really walk the bases loaded, then give up a homerun to a hitter who was averaging a homerun every 50 plate appearances? Did all the Cubs infielders really make errors in game 2? Did the Cubs really lose the first two games, 17-5 at home after having by far the best run differential in the National League? These are only a few of the questions that Cubs fan has been asking themselves over and over.

2. Anger - No Cubs fan could not help but be angry. Whether you've been a Cubs fan for 50 years, 25 years or 1 year. To see the season end as quickly as it did was infuriating. To follow a team everyday for 8 months of the year and have them go down without a fight is the worst thing that could've happened. If they were just going to roll over, they shouldn't have even played this season. If they were going to break our hearts, they should have done it in April or May, not now. How could they let us down like this?

3. Bargaining - I mean, there has to be a reason that the best team in the National League lost, right? Sometimes, the best team doesn't win in the playoffs. Look at the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006. No one thought they would win a game in the playoffs, and they won it all. Or the 2001 Seattle Mariners, they won 116 games and lost in the ALCS. 116 wins! Maybe our team just wasn't built for a short series. Maybe the nerves just got to us. Maybe we weren't meant to win.

4. Depression - There was a "memorial" for the team outside of Wrigley Field after the sweep. Several Cubs fans are selling their loyalty on Ebay and offering to burn all of their apparel and memorabilia. But for this, I'll just post this depressing letter from Mark DeRosa's blog from a heartbroken Cubs fan:

Mark,
I wonder, this morning, if we (the fans) don't owe you (the players) an apology. It seemed clear from the expressions and the body language that you guys were not having a whole lot of fun out there. We robbed you guys of the simple joy of playing a baseball game. We asked for too much. We turned winning a baseball game into something that it is not...a source of omnipotent happiness or redemption or glory...and many were cruel and divisive when they didn't get what they wanted. I am sorry.
I wonder if this thing has gotten too big, if 100 years of hope and heartbreak for untold millions has become a burden too great for 25 mere mortals to shoulder. I fear that the Cubs are doomed to failure. In a strange way I am okay with that. After all, I have been a Cubs fan for as long as I can remember. I can no more change that about myself than I can change my blood type. And the lessons that I have
learned from my relationship with the Cubs...about faith, and love and loss and perseverance and hope...are more important than winning a baseball game, or 11 baseball games, could ever be.

And finally...

5. Acceptance - This significantly varies from fan to fan. Some have already accepted the loss, while it may take some until the first pitch of the 2009 season. And then there are the few that will never accept it. But for the most part, everyone will. We always do. We did after Alex Gonzalez's booted grounder in 2003. We did it 2004, after the Cubs choked away a 2.5 game lead in the Wild Card with 9 games left. We even did it back in 1984 when Leon Durham let a ball go through his legs in Game 5 of the NLCS. And the older fans did it when the Cubs got blown out at home in Game 7 of the World Series. Many fans have invested so much time and effort to just give up hope now. Some day it will eventually happen, it has to. And no fan wants to have given up before that happens. Because when it does happen, the feeling with be indescribable, and all fans want that experience. Maybe every year that they don't win, will make a World Series win that much sweeter. You have to experience pain to appreciate pleasure. And once we accept the pain of this year, we'll continue to hope that next year will bring us that indescribable pleasure.

Quote of the Week

"He needs to swing some more. I talked to him about that. Strikeouts aren't the only criteria. I'd like to see him more aggressive. A lot of this on-base percentage is taking away the aggressiveness of some young kids. Most of the time you've got to put handcuffs on a young to keep him from swinging."

--Johnnie B. when asked what he thought about firstbase prospect Joey Votto

My Infamous 72 Guaran-damn-tees for the 2008 MLB Season

The 2008 season is less than a month away and there are still a lot of questions out there about how things will play out. Well until you read this post that is...

This season I Guaran-damn-tee that:

1. The Boston Red Sox will not win the World Series this year. I know it doesn't take cojones to pick the field against the defending champions, but I'm pretty sure Red Sox fans will think that's just retahded.

2. Thanks to Carlos Pena, BJ Upton, Carl Crawford and ROY candidate Evan Longoria, the Tampa Bay Rays will break their franchise record for most wins in a season with 77. If they could only find a way out of the AL East.

3. Ichiro Suzuki will get his 3,000th hit in professional baseball in the beginning of August. Going into the season he has 2,870 combined Japan and MLB hits.

4. The San Francisco Giants will almost lose 100 games this year, falling just "short" with a 64-98 record. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum will wonder what they did to deserve this.

5. Baltimore Orioles fans will be longing for the days of Cal Ripken Jr, Eddie Murray and Scott McGregor. Hell, they'll be longing for the days of Cal Ripken Jr, Brady Anderson, and David Segui.

6. The Giants outfield will combine for less homeruns than Ryan Howard.

7. Despite changing their name to the "Rays" this offseason, the Tampa Bay club will still be referred to by their original name, "That shitty team in the AL East", but only for one more season. Then the Orioles will inherit the name.

8. Joe Crede will not finish the season in a White Sox jersey. Its also likely, he won't start the season in one either.

9. Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons will be the first manager fired. And Ned Yost will be on the hot seat in the second half of the season.

10. The Chorizo Sausage will win the most races during the Miller Park Sausage Race.

11. The Colorado Rockies will not win 14 out of their last 15 regular season games. However, they will finish 2nd in the NL West and barely miss the wild card.

12. Chipper Jones will not play in 150 games this year. Yes, you may not think that it is a very bold prediction, but Jones disagrees.

13. Barry Bonds will not play in the MLB this year, nor will he play in Japan. His ego won't let him.

14. Roger Clemens will not play in the MLB this year. Congress won't let him.

15. Juan Gonzalez will play in the MLB this year. The Cardinal's have no choice but to let him.

16. The National League will win the All-Star game this year.

17. The Rockies and Padres will not lead the league again in Games Played. They will play 162 just like everyone else.

18. Too many Red Sox will make the All-Star game, like Dustin Pedroia. (FYI: For some reason he has "DADDY" written on his chest)

19. Alex Gordon will make Kansas City fans forget about his subpar rookie year.

20. No more big name players will be linked with steroids this season.

21. In order to show that he doesn't favor veterans over young players, Dusty Baker will play Joey Votto over 120 games. However, Jay Bruce will be kept in the minors for a few months to delay his arbitration years. Also...

22. Neifi Perez will end up in a Cincinnati Reds uniform sometime this year. Alex Gonzalez breaking his knee was just the reason Dusty Baker needed to ask the GM to sign Perez.

23. It will only take Torii Hunter 48 hours to realize that a baseball camp for urban youth will not work in his new home, Orange County.

24. After the first 50 games, the Cardinals will realize that they have no chance to compete this year and will shut Albert Pujols down for the remainder of the season. There's no reason to risk Pujols' elbow blowing out when your rotation is Adam Wainwright, Joel Piniero, Braden Looper, Anthony Reyes and Todd Wellemeyer.

25. Joe Borowski will finally lose his job as closer, then his job as an MLB player.

26. Somehow, Giants GM Brian Sabean once again escapes being fired. Not only is this year's team awful, in the past 4 years he has acquired: Reggie Sanders, Marquis Grissom, Michael Tucker (who he gave up the team's 1st round pick to sign), Mike Matheny, Steve Finley, Randy Winn, Matt Morris, Armando Benitez, and Tim Worrell. And who can forget trading Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser for AJ Pierzynski?

27. The naming rights of Wrigley Field will be sold, and it will cause outrage for a few months. However, games will continue to sell out. And everyone will have a great time at the Friendly Confines of Bank of America Field.

28. Felix Hernandez still does not have the breakout year everyone expects, however he still has a good year.

29. The Padres will have the best bullpen in baseball again despite Trevor Hoffman being their 4th best reliever.

30. Kyle Lohse will not get the 4 years/$40 million he was asking for. Hahaha, crazy Scott Boras.

31. Only half of the closers on opening day will remain in that role by the end of the season.

32. Adam Dunn or Ken Griffey will be the biggest name moved at the deadline. C.C. Sabathia won't be traded with hopes that the Indians can sign him in the off-season.

33. Curtis Granderson will be caught stealing more than the one time he was caught last year despite stealing 26 bases.

34. The Dodgers will somehow find away to block another top prospect, Andy Laroche. Either by platooning him with Nomar Garciaparra-Hamm, or by trading for a third baseman, such as Brandon Inge.

35. Larry Bowa will give in and wear the helmet.

36. Josh Hamilton will hit 30 homeruns, however he won't be able to avoid the disabled list. But it won't be for substance abuse.

37. Lastings Milledge will be beaned in his first game against the New York Mets. Everyone will be prepared for a bench clearing brawl, but Milledge will just brush his shoulders off and head to first.

38. Gold Glove voters will realize their mistake last year and give Troy Tulowitzki his first of many Gold Gloves this year.

39. However, in the AL new Twins shortstop Adam Everett will continue to get screwed over, this time by Derek Jeter's intangibles.

40. Hanley Ramirez and Chris B. Young will hit 30 homeruns and steal 30 bases, joining last years' 30/30 players, Jimmy Rollins, David Wright and Brandon Phillips.

41. Even though Curt Schilling will miss half of the season rehabbing his rotator cuff, he will definitely make sure we don't forget he's still around.

42. The White Sox will finish in the top 6 in the AL in offense, but their pitching will rank in the bottom 6.

43. Aaron Harang will strikeout over 200 batters for the 3rd consecutive year and still get no Cy Young votes.

44. Ryan Braun will live up to the hype by posting nearly identical stats as he did last year, minus the errors in left field.

45. The Marlins will only lose 2 more games this year despite losing their best hitter and pitcher this offseason.

46. David Eckstein will continue to be praised for being short, even in Canada where he is 1.70 meters tall now.

47. Milton Bradley will continue to be the angriest man in the league.

48. Ryan Howard will strike out more than 200 times, walk more than 100 times and hit over 50 homeruns. The epitome of the Three True Outcomes.

49. The MLB's version of Adam Jones will not get in trouble for any off the field incidents, which can't be said for Elijah Dukes.

50. Brian Roberts will be traded....eventually.

51. Mark Prior will make 12 starts for the San Diego Padres before being shut down for good at the All-Star break.

52. Dontrelle Willis will get lit up so bad that he gets banished to the pen where he'll have success as a lefty specialist.

53. Rich Harden will make 24 starts for the Oakland Athletics and will be traded along with Joe Blanton during the season.

54. Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine will all retire together this offseason so that all three will be inducted into the Hall of Fame together. Unless of course, they are somehow linked to steroids.

55. Francisco Liriano will win AL Comeback player of the year after missing last year with Tommy John surgery. He'll be followed by BJ Ryan and JD Drew.

56. Andruw Jones will win NL Comeback player of the year with the Dodgers this year. It'd be pretty hard for him to not improve on his .222 batting average and 26 homeruns. Finishing after Jones will be Miguel Tejada and Jason Bay, that is if any voter knew that Pittsburgh has a baseball team.

57. Even though he's not really a rookie persay, Kosuke Fukudome will win the NL Rookie of the Year. He'll be followed by Colby Rasmus, Joey Votto, Hiroki Kuroda and Cubs teammate Geovany Soto.

58. In the junior circuit everyone will be watching Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, and Jacoby Ellsbury fight it out, but Evan Longoria will walk away with the hardware despite not playing for the Nation or Country.

59. Johan Santana will win 23 games and the NL Cy Young considering the Mets play 49 games against the Marlins, Nationals, Giants and Pirates. He'll also post a sub 2.50 ERA and strike out over 250, but who's counting?

60. Justin Verlander will win the AL Cy Young thanks to the incredible offense that the Tigers will put out there every day. He will finish with 20 wins and mark the first time since 2005 that one pitcher from each league won at least 20 games (Chris Carpenter and Bartolo Colon).

61. Alex Rodriguez will win his 4th AL MVP this year despite winning every other year since 2003. Of course, MVPs don't mean anything in the Bronx, but Gold Gloves do. Just ask Derek Jeter.

62. David Wright will win the MVP he deserved last year before his team collapsed at the end of the season. The Mets should win the NL East this year and win the most games in the NL, which usually helps persuade MVP voters.

63. The Detroit Tigers will win the AL Central almost reaching 100 wins. The Indians will finish in 2nd, just missing out on the Wild Card. Rounding out the division will be the White Sox, Twins then Royals.

64. The Boston Red Sox will win the AL East for the 2nd consecutive year. The Yankees will win the Wild Card under new manager Joe Girardi. Following them will be the Blue Jays, Devil Rays, and Orioles.

65. The Anaheim Angels will be the easy winner of the AL West, followed by the Mariners, Rangers and Athletics.

66. The Chicago Cubs will win the NL Central, battling with the Milwaukee Brewers all year. The rest of the division will shake out as follows: Reds, Astros and Pirates.

67. The NL East will be won by the New York Mets who will be playing with that awful memory of their collapse last season. The Phillies will come in second no matter what Jimmy Rollins thinks, and the Braves will come in 3rd once again. The Nationals will finish in 4th with the Marlins falling into 5th slot.

68. So what about the crazy NL West? The division that almost had their best team finish under .500 in 2005 is now one of the best divisions from top to bottom. The Diamondbacks will win the division again thanks to the addition of Dan Haren. The Rockies will continue to mash but fall just short this year. The Dodgers will finish in 3rd, followed by the Padres, and the worst team in all the MLB, the San Francisco Giants.

69. The ALCS will match up the Tigers vs. the Red Sox with the Tigers advancing to the World Series.

70. The NLCS will match up the Cubs vs. the Mets with the Cubbies finally going to the World Series on their 100th anniversary of their last Championship.

71. Being a Cub fan and it being spring training, I'm pretty sure you can guess who I predict to win this year. And if you don't like it, feel free to start your own blog. Fukudome for 大統領!

72. After the season, both Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will be found guilty of perjury and sentenced to prison time. After being assigned to the same prison, they will face off in a cage match, the greatest pitcher* vs. the greatest hitter* to see who is Undisputed.

Kosuke Fu...Wait....What?

Kosuke Fukudome (pronounced KOH-skay foo-koo-DOUGH-may) was at the top of the Cubs wish list this offseason much to the surprise of many Cubs fans. Not only did the Cubs target the exact type of player they needed, they succeeded in signing him. It's been an unusual feeling for Cubs fans who are used to coming in 2nd or 3rd in free agent bidding. Mike Piazza in 1998. Mike Hampton in 2000 (thank goodness for that Colorado school system). But even the free agents the Cubs did sign never quite turned out. Mel Rojas in 1996 (3 yr/13.75 mill). Jeff Blauser in 1997 (2yr/8.4 mill). And who could forget Todd Hundley's historically awful contract (4 yr/23.5 mill). So not only did the Cubs get two of their top free agent targets last year, Alfonso Soriano and Ted Lilly, they got their man this year.

Last year, the Cubs finished 18th in both OBP at .333 and Runs at 4.64 per game. Maybe the front office finally realized that to score runs, teams need baserunners no matter what Tim McCarver thinks. So they went out and signed the left handed outfielder (which Jim Hendry loves, just ask Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones, Felix Pie, Daryl Ward, Juan Pierre, Todd Hollandworth, Corey Patterson, and Jeromey Burnitz and thats just since 2005) who had a career .397 OBP in Japan. Its still unknown where he'll hit in the lineup and will depend on whether the Cubs get their next target, Brian Roberts, but we'll see how that plays out. As of now, I see the Cubs slotting Fukudome in the 5th slot behind Soriano, Theriot, Lee and Ramirez.

In 1995, seven professional teams bid for the rights for Fukudome out of high school but were declined because of his desire to play for the Chunichi Dragons. He instead joined an amateur team and was later selected to represent Japan in the 1996 Olympics. He was the youngest player to ever be selected for an Olympic baseball team and helped Japan finish with the silver medal. In 1998, he was drafted by his favorite childhood team, the Chunichi Dragons in the first round as a shortstop. He hit well his rookie year, posting a .284 batting average with 16 homeruns, but his defense was well below average. He had a very strong arm but could not consistently field groundballs. His second year he was converted to a third baseman but his fielding did not improve. It was not until he was converted to an outfielder his third year that he was able to put his speed and arm in the field to good use. He went on to win 4 gold gloves as a right fielder for the Dragons. Despite all his fielding troubles, Fukudome consistently hit. The past six years he has posted a .414 OBP and a .584 SLG, and won the MVP award in 2006. That year the 6' tall outfielder hit.351/.438/.653 with 117 Runs and 104 RBIs.

So how will Fukudome's stats in Japan translate in the MLB? Lou Piniella says he's a cross between Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. Former Pacific League manager and new Royals manager Trey Hillman compares him to Ichiro and last year's Japanese import Akinori Iwamura who hit .285/.359/.411 in 123 games last year. "He's short to the ball, he's got great balance, he stays inside the ball," Hillman said of Fukudome. "He's got more balance than left-handed, Japanese-style hitters with the leg lift." Keith Law took a different approach and actually compared him to a non-Japanese player, Bobby Abreu, "Fukudome's best attribute as a hitter is his willingness to work deep counts, reminiscent of Bobby Abreu's approach and results." Cubs assistant GM, Randy Bush took his comparison even further by comparing him to Steve Finley and stating, "He's one of those guys who does everything so fluid and graceful it stands out in your mind." I hope he's comparing him to the young Steve Finley. On second thought, he should stop comparing him to Steve Finley at all, it's making me worry.

Heres a look at a few players' stats from their Japanese league days and their MLB days:

Ichiro Suzuki:
JPN: .353/.421/.522 in 9 years
MLB: .333/.379/.437 in 7 years

Hideki Matsui:
JPN: .304/.413/.582 in 10 years
MLB: .295/.371/.485 in 5 years

Kaz Matsui:
JPN: .309/.361/.486 in 9 years
MLB: .272/.325/.387 in 4 years

Tadahito Iguchi:
JPN: .271/.349/.471 in 8 years
MLB: .276/.347/.421 in 3 years

Kenji Johjima:
JPN: .299/.360/.517 in 11 years
MLB: .289/.327/.442 in 2 years

So Taguchi:
JPN: .277/.387/.333 in 10 years
MLB: .283/.336/..391 in 6 years

Tsuyoshi Shinjo:
JPN: .254/.305/.432 in 13 years
MLB: .245/.299/.370 in 3 years

Kosuke Fukudome:
JPN: .305/.397/.543 in 8 years
MLB: ???/???/???

Looking at these other players it seems reasonable to expect batting average to stay about the same, OBP to decrease slightly, and SLG to decrease a decent amount. Except for So Taguchi whose SLG increased almost .060 points. But he was a teammate of Mark McGwire at one point, so it makes sense. Looking at PECOTA's projection of Fukudome, they expect his stats to drop off only slightly next year:

80 R/30 2B/4 3B/15 HR/58 RBI/70 BB/94 SO/9 SB/.289 BA/.401 OBP/.504 SLG

Nate Silver also commented:

PECOTA holds Fukudome’s playing time projection down because he missed about half of last season due to elbow surgery. If he’s healthy in spring training, that should no longer be a concern. And look at that pretty OBP! Fukudome is unlikely to be a huge power threat, but that on-base ability should address one of the Cubs‘ primary areas of weakness. His top comparables give you a pretty good idea of what sort of player we’re looking at; his is a fairly common profile for a left-handed outfielder.

His top comparables are listed as:

1. J.D. Drew
2. Gene Hermanski
3. Jim Edmonds
4. Fred Lynn
5. Johnny Grubb
6. Andy Van Slyke
7. Bobby Abreu

Will he be worth the $48 million dollar contract? I think he will be. Looking at the contracts being given to outfielders the past two years, this deal could look like a bargain. Torii Hunter will be making $18 million a year for 5 years. Andruw Jones will be making over $19 million for the next two years. Light hitting Juan Pierre will continue making $9 million for the next 4 years. And Gary Matthews is in the second year of his 5 year, $50 million dollar deal. However, most people worry that a Japanese player will take a while to adjust to America, which could be true. So far though, Fukudome seems comfortable with making these adjustments. One of the main reasons he chose the Cubs is because of Lou Piniella, who managed Japanese players Ichiro, Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Kazuhiro Sasaki in Seattle. He compares Piniella to his former manager Senichi "Burning Hat" Hosino, who baseball-reference.com describes as "known for fighting with players from other teams … screaming at players, hitting his own players and kicking dirt at umpires and attacking them." In a Japanese interview, Fukudome said, 'If Piniella is like Hoshino, I will like him."

Only a few more months remain for us to wait and see the Cubs' first Japanese player take his position where other once loved players have. The player his teammates will refer to as "Dome" will run out to right field wearing #1 and undoubtedly will receive the "Salaam" salute once given to Andre Dawson and Sammy Sosa. I don't know how good he will actually be, but what I do know is it was only 2 years ago that our outfielders were Todd Hollandsworth, Corey Patterson and Jeromey Burnitz. So I'm okay with taking a chance on a Japanese MVP.

Welcome Back Johnnie B

So he isn't coming back to the Cubs, but Dusty Baker is back in the NL Central. Last month, the Cincinnati Reds signed Baker to a 3 year deal making him the first black manager in their 117 year history. So what does this mean to the Reds and the rest of the NL Central? Well it depends on who you ask.

In San Francisco, Dusty is most known for his handling of superstars Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent and leading lesser talented teams to winning records. He won Manager of the Year three times and led the Giants to 7 winning seasons out of the 10 he managed. Despite taking the Giants to the World Series in 2002, he wasn't brought back and the Chicago Cubs signed him to take over their 67 win team.

Just looking at the improvement the Cubs made from 2002 to 2003, you would have to conclude that Dusty Baker was a big part of the turnaround. The team went from fifth place to winning the division by one game and making it to game 7 of the NLCS. Looking deeper into the season though, the team should've won more than 88 games.

In 2003, thirty-eight year old journeyman Lenny Harris had 131 ABs, posting a .255 OBP, while twenty eight year old Mark Bellhorn had 139 ABs, posting a .341 OBP. When asked about Bellhorn seeing more playing time, Baker responded, "He has been programmed, before we got him, by the A's. Their philosophy is taking a lot of pitches and getting deep in the count. Most times, I notice guys who come from the American League to the National League weren't used to being aggressive and took a lot of pitches. It's going to take time to change your mind-set." Of course, we remember Baker's quote about how he feels about OBP, "On base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage. Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." So instead of using the switch hitting Bellhorn with an .080 higher OBP more, he used the 'aggressive' Harris.

Unfortunately, this wasn't the only instance of Baker preferring the less talented player. Shawn Estes made 28 starts despite posting a 5.73 ERA, while young pitchers Sergio Mitre and Juan Cruz were used sporadically. Players who Baker didn't favor, usually young players, were banished to the minors, bench, or occasionally other teams. And 'established veterans' were used in their place:

Ramon Martinez - 293 ABs - .333 OBP
Troy O'Leary - 174 ABs - .255 OBP
Tom Goodwin - 171 ABs - .328 OBP
Tony Womack - 51 ABs - .250 OBP

Of course, this trend continued throughout Baker's four years in Chicago. Players like Bellhorn, Jason Dubois, and Jerry Hairston were moved to make way for veterans such as Todd Hollandsworth, Jeromey Burnitz, Jose Macias, Rey Ordonez and of course Neifi Perez. In 2005, when asked why Perez was getting more time than youngster Ronny Cedeno, he answered, "I hear a lot of people say, 'Hey, put Cedeno in.' What am I supposed to do, push Neifi out now? This guy has saved us." In 2005, Perez had 572 ABs and posted a .298 OBP. 572 ABs! However, in defense of Baker, in his last season he was given much less talent and unsurprisingly finished in 5th place.

Of course, Baker's most noted for his handling of young pitchers. We all know what happened with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior who together combined for 31 starts of 150 of starts with over 120 pitches thrown. But what about other starters Baker managed?

Carlos Zambrano - 31 starts of 129 with 120+ pitches
Matt Clement - 6 starts of 64 with 120+ pitches
Livan Hernandez - 43 starts of 110 with 120+ pitches
Russ Ortiz - 33 starts of 144 with 120+ pitches
Shawn Estes - 22 starts of 160 with 120+ pitches

Chance of injury greatly increases when a pitcher goes over 120 pitches. So looking at these 7 pitchers, they went over 120 pitches 22% of the time, and this doesn't include the playoffs.

However, according to The Hardball Times:

Baker's pitchers throw 3.68 more pitches per start than expected. That's maybe an extra start-and-a-fifth a year. It's about 5-10 extra innings.

So it seems that to claim that Baker ruins pitchers' careers is hyperbolic at the least. Even if we account for the fact that younger pitchers should probably be throwing less innings, Baker still isn't quite the monster people make him out to be. Nevertheless, if he is worth 5-6 extra pitches per outing for a young pitcher, that may indeed be significant. There's certainly no reason not to be on the cautious side, and Baker's lack of caution with high-pitch outings is certainly disconcerting.

But Dusty Baker is not a professional arm shredder; he only leaves his starters out there for about three-and-a-half more pitches than expected.

So maybe Prior and Wood's injuries had nothing to do with Baker, it all depends on who you ask. But for now, we don't know for sure.

So what does this mean for Reds fans? We'll have to wait to see for sure but here some key aspects to look out for:

Adam Dunn - Dunn lacks the aggressiveness that Baker looks for in his players which will probably lead to Baker looking to move him as soon as possible, which would be July 15 since the Reds picked up his option this offseason.

Edwin Encarnacion - Last year, Encarnacion was pulled after not running out a pop fly. Baker has the reputation of being very laid back and not getting on his players for lack of hustle, and it'll be interesting to see if Encarnacion goes back to evil ways.

Free Agents - Baker has a positive reputation among players, mostly because of his laid back clubhouse. This could increase the interest of free agents to sign with the Reds.

Jay Bruce and Joey Votto - Baker loves veterans and Freel and Hatteberg (if resigned) could easily be given ABs that should go to Bruce and Votto. Bruce had a great season in the minors, going from A to AAA and posting a combined .319/.375/.587, and Votto put up .321/.360/.548 after being called up to the big club. They should be ready to start in 2008 but if Baker sticks to what he's done in the past, they'll be in a platoon with an established veteran.

Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto - Two homegrown pitchers who the Reds will be relying on for the next several years will be tested with Baker at the helm. Will he use them the same way he used Prior and Wood, or did he learn from his mistakes?

NL Central Managers - It'll be fun to see LaRussa, Baker and Piniella all in the same division. We know Baker already doesn't like LaRussa, and I'm sure there will be some tension between Baker and Piniella with Baker getting the short end of the stick in Chicago.

Neifi Perez - I'm sure Baker's already made him an offer for after his suspension. Reds fans better get used to him.

And this Baker quote might help Reds fans realize what they're in for, "I remember my old general manager Al Campanis telling me that a player doesn't reach his peak until he's somewhere between 32 or 36 and beyond..." Doesn't seem like the kind of manager a young, up and coming team needs right now.